Mr. Trump's trade war would have little direct impact on Hungary

HUNGARY - In Brief 03 Mar 2018 by Istvan Racz

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The total (direct and indirect) potential impact of the recently announced extra import duties on steel and aluminum products on Hungary cannot be known for the time being, of course, as it will depend on how far trade policy conflicts between the US and the rest of the world (and primarily the EU) would eventually go.But at least we can safely say that the direct impact would be most likely small. This is because by now, Hungary has developed into a true non-metallurgy economy (even more than some other CEE economies), and also because the predominant part of the country's metal exports are sold to Europe, rather than to any other place, including the US.Most importantly, the production of metallurgy and processed metal products provides for just 7% of total industrial output (which is in turn just above one-quarter of the economy), and metals give about 5% of total merchandise exports. In addition, hardly any of the latter is sold directly to the US.Nonetheless, we are concerned a bit about rising bourbon whisky import prices as far as the EU strikes back as it has just promised. As is well-known to the reader, trade policy is handled at the EU level for all member states.