MTP 2014-16: Cozy But Unlikely

TURKEY - Report 09 Oct 2013 by Murat Ucer
The authorities’ Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2014-16 was announced yesterday. The revisions made to the three main macro aggregates and our quick thoughts on them are summarized below. Table 1 below provides the key macro indicators for the current and previous MTPs, while annex tables (1-4) provide the details. Growth: The government revised down the growth rate for this year to 3.6% and for the next year to 4%, from previous MTP’s 4% and 5%, respectively. Our reaction: Our growth estimate is similar for this year, but next year’s forecast looks a little optimistic to us, even though the...

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