MTP: Sorry, But It Doesn’t Hang Together

TURKEY - Report 27 Sep 2017 by Murat Ucer

Today the government announced the broad outlines of its Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2018-20. What we have below is our preliminary reactions, based on the presentation (in Turkish) made by the authorities. We shall follow this up with more thoughts, if need be, once the full document and more info become available. The key macro aggregates for 2017-20 are provided in Table 1 below. (Note that because GDP has been revised up by about 20% since last year’s MTP, the figures are not directly comparable, but we have nevertheless kept them for reference purposes.)

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