Politics: Much at stake in 2022 state elections for both governing and opposition forces
The significance of next June’s elections resides in the elements it can provide us to assess the Morena party’s performance at the ballot box two years ahead of the next presidential vote. The few polls that are public and relatively reliable suggest at this point that Morena will win five out of the six gubernatorial contests, with Aguascalientes the only one expected to remain in the PAN column.
The gubernatorial contests scheduled in six states this June 5 could have a considerable bearing on the prospects for a further consolidation of the administration’s Fourth Transformation project and its longevity. But the contests can also shed light on the prospects of an opposition that remains in disarray, with greatly diminished support since 2018. Given President López Obrador’s continuing popularity, anti-4T parties’ chances can benefit from the old dictum that all politics is local, even as they continue to lose ground in much of the country.
The potential risks to Morena include mounting resentment from among its ranks over its penchant for deciding candidacies on the basis of polling numbers widely assumed to be cooked, leaving some politicians who feel they were robbed of the nomination possibly striking out with gubernatorial campaigns of their own.
Among the five gubernatorial contests in which Morena is favored, three – Durango, Tamaulipas and Hidalgo – could prove highly competitive, and we cannot rule out the coalition opposition's winning one or all three, an outcome that could considerably stem the 4T camp’s momentum and put wind in the sails of a resurgent opposition. With five months to go, a lot could change.
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