Muddle-Through Forever?

TURKEY - Forecast 06 Jul 2014 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada
Executive Summary Thanks to the ongoing support from top central banks, markets have been making the most out of Turkey’s cyclical adjustment story. Since the January troughs, bonds rallied by 300 bps while the lira appreciated by some 10% against the basket; markets also held up reasonably well, in face of rising regional tensions. Turkey’s cyclical story is not bad indeed. Growth has been resilient through H1, with GDP expanding by a stronger than expected 4.3%, y/y, in Q1. Thanks to a multitude of factors (weaker lira, stronger Europe, weak domestic demand, the gold-effect), CAD has been...

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