Murder, mystery, mayhem

TURKEY - Report 20 Nov 2022 by Atilla Yesilada and Murat Ucer

Turkish jets strafed Syrian Kurdish settlements in retaliation for the Beyoglu terror attack. We doubt this will escalate into a military campaign, though. There is a lot of commentary on Erdogan’s diplomatic efforts elevating his credibility and raising his voter approval at home. We are circumspect. Abroad, visibility is not necessarily credibility. At home, no sign of any pick-up in Erdogan’s poll ratings -- yet.

The Beyoglu terror attack is blamed on PKK and its Syrian ally PYD/YPG, but factions in pro-Turkish Free Syrian Army or ISIS are more likely candidates. We fear more attacks, if the latter two were behind the heinous incident. This is one development which could bolster the votes of the ruling Republican Alliance, but it is not yet apparent in the polls.

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