​Nation Security Council Meeting and Fool’s Gold

TURKEY - In Brief 29 Mar 2017 by Atilla Yesilada

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I know everyone is focused on the presidential referendum, but there is little new to report there. In my poll-of-polls the NO camp pulled ahead a smidgeon farther, thanks a new one by centre-left SONAR which gave it a 51-49% edge. I still maintain AKP will find a way to win with 55% probability. The real news is National Security Council (NSC) meeting, where-- first -Operation Euphrates Shield was declared completed. This means Ankara will not try to invade Kurdish-held Manbij, or attempt to provoke a war with Syrian Kurds by attacking one of their three cantons in Syria in the foreseeable future. When U.S. Secretary of State Mr. Tillerson visits Ankara tomorrow, he will be kindly asked to drop Kurds from the plans to liberate DAESH’s Syrian capital Raqqa in favor of the Turkish military, which will be politely declined. But, that’s it. For the short-term that is good news, the specter of war with some faction or power in Syria is off our risk map. For the longer term? Wait for our upcoming monthly, Turkey is not done in Syria. Secondly, the NSC did not recommend to the Cabinet an extension of the current of State of Emergency (SoE) which expires on 19th of April. Speaking to TV broadcasters after the meeting, PM Yildirim didn’t seem to know whether SoE will be extended, either. I suspect the Yes camp is not doing too well in large cities like Istanbul and Ankara where the promise of lifting the SoE in case of the adoption of the presidential amendments could be used as an effective propaganda tool. In any case, the lifting of SoE would be tremendous morale boost to the economy and a sign of a significant policy change towards pragmatism. Alas, I can’t promise it. Per...