National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts the base rate to 15.75%

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 24 Nov 2023 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov
On November 23, the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 15.75%. The regulator referred to slowing inflation (0.7% m-o-m and 10.8% y-o-y in October) and now expects it to fall to the 9.3%-10.3% range by the end of the year. Next year's inflation target remains unchanged at 7.5%-9.5% (officially, the NBK called this range a forecast). Slowing global inflation was mentioned as another reason for decelerating inflation in Kazakhstan. Generally, the economic situation looks stable, and inflation keeps decelerating. The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in the seven days ending on November 21, the w-o-w price index for a basket of socially essential goods (i.e., basic food items) remained at zero. This index grew MTD and YTD by 0.1% and 3.4%. In November, m-o-m inflation will likely be lower than in October as the appreciated tenge helped to contain price increases. Overall, the aforementioned 25 bps move can be considered as a rather neutral policy action.

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