Nawrocki will be the next Polish president. The hopes of the government coalition weaken.

POLAND - In Brief 02 Jun 2025 by Jan Hagemejer

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The election night on June 1st was very stressful, as the initial results were on the edge. The first exit polls showed a slight advantage for Trzaskowski (0.6 pp at 9:00 pm), but the two subsequent late exit polls during the night showed a slight advantage for Nawrocki. However, the early morning results from all voting districts cleared up the uncertainty. Nawrocki received 50.9% of the votes while Trzaskowski received the remaining 49.1%. The turnout was extraordinary at 71.6%, but not high enough to secure Trzaskowski's victory (it was estimated that he would win if turnout exceeded 74%).  What happened?  It was the usual, i.e., Polish liberals are just not good at elections. Trzaskowski was not the best choice. Coming from an intellectual and artistic family, having an international education, and speaking several languages, as well as being Warsaw-born and raised, does not seem to be an advantage for Polish society, particularly those from small towns and villages who provided the bulk of the votes for Nawrocki. Nawrocki played the everyman who emerged from a life of gangsterism and some dubious ties, as a PhD holder and serving as the chief of important institutions—something of a Hollywood story. Trzaskowski's very liberal views on abortion, overall openness and tolerance were also laughed at by the social media sympathetic to Nawrocki. Moreover, he had already lost once (also by a narrow margin) in the previous presidential election. Furthermore, in the final weeks before the election, liberal media and Trzaskowski's campaigns were focused on negativity towards Nawrocki rather than promoting Trzaskowski. While Nawrocki is indeed a rather shady person, the amou...