New Letdown from the Fiscal Results

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 03 Nov 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

There were no doubts that the fiscal result for September would be bad, but it turned out to be even worse than most observers predicted. The consolidated public sector debt was R$ 25 billion, reducing the primary surplus from 0.9% to 0.6% of GDP (and to 0.4% of GDP after excluding the effects of accounting tricks and non-recurring revenue over the past 12 months - Graph 1). There was also a negative surprise in the accounts of the states and municipalities, which tallied a deficit of R$ 4.8 billion in the month and are headed toward a 12-month result of zero (Graph 2). The public sector debt in September was the biggest since 2008, at the height of the crisis. The erosion of the public accounts has been worsening since May this year, when there was a primary public sector deficit higher than R$ 10 billion, followed by further deficits in the five ensuing months.

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