Politics: New poll shows minor shifts in voter opinions, concerns and preferences
The latest GEA-ISA poll, conducted in mid-June, shows some minor shifts in voter perceptions of the state of the country, President Lopez Obrador’s approval levels, and support for the country’s different political parties and coalitions with an eye toward the 2024 presidential elections. Given what many observers view as AMLO’s disastrous track record in his first three years in office, his continued ability not only to maintain but actually regain support in the past few months may come as a big surprise. The president’s approval ratings stand at 52%, with 44% disapproving of his record in office. It should be noted, however that emotional factors (personal identification with AMLO, his perceived good intentions, etc.) weigh more than objective considerations. This is not good news for those who are betting that a worsening of the country’s situation would automatically translate into a massive decline in the president’s approval ratings.
As in past opinion polls, the general state of the country and where it is headed, as well as specific policies, face widespread if not majority disapproval. Public security has now displaced the economy as the issue the public considers the most pressing. AMLO’s “hugs not bullets” policy is perceived as leading to more, not less violence, by 51% to 44%, although the administration’s fight against organized crime retains a slight edge, with 48% approving and 44% disapproving. At the same time, 49% of those polled think the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 39% who think it is on the right track, a switch that clearly is bad news for the president and his supporters.
How will all this affect the 2024 presidential elections? Even though the public remains overwhelmingly supportive of the National Electoral Institute – despite AMLO’s constant attacks on it – Morena continues to gain ground against its largely discredited opponents with 39% voter support, compared with 13% for the PAN and 4% for the PRI. Yet if the opposition (PRI, PAN, PRD) were to unite behind a single candidate, the Morena coalition’s margin narrows considerably, to a mere 3pp (42% to 39%), with the Citizens Movement, which as of now says it will run on its own, possibly emerging as the kingmaker.
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