New Test for the Repo Rate Hiking Cycle Rule

SOUTH AFRICA - Report 22 Aug 2014 by Iraj Abedian
Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) will publish the second quarter of 2014 gross domestic growth outcome on 26 August 2014. Following a 0.6 per cent contraction on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualised basis in Q1 2014, we expect a positive (albeit pedestrian) growth rate in Q2 2014. In this scenario, the SA economy would have just averted a technical recession. Strikes in the platinum mining industry and a lack of business confidence dragged the tempo of economic activity during Q2 2014. As shown in Graph 1, annual mining production performed poorly during Q2 2014. Compar...

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