New threats to stability: ISIS and PKK

TURKEY - In Brief 10 Jun 2014 by Atilla Yesilada

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I’m shocked beyond belief! 1.500 ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or Levant) militants took control of Iraq’s second largest city Mosul within a day, and now there are unconfirmed reports that the biggest Turkmeni city, Tuzhourmatu, has also fallen under their control. In Turkey, the shooting of two protestors and the desecration of the Turkish flag in Lice, Diyarbakir embroiled Southeast into protests, as MHP’s auxiliary organizations marched in large numbers first time in decades. I don't expect the markets to discount either of these threats immediately, but I stand by my thesis that “all hell will break loose” on the way to presidential elections. The incredible success of ISIS is actually a demonstration of how Maliki’s divide-and-rule policies has hallowed out the army and the police which simply ran away from the attack without firing a single shot in many instances. Mosul is not a Felucca, where the same army failed to uproot ISIS for six months. It has a large population of Kurds and Turkmenis, is a major trade-energy hub and is very close to Turkey. I anticipate a major counter-offensive by the Iraqi Army, but can't guarantee it will succeed in dislodging ISIS. If ISIS keeps Mosul and Tuzhourmatu, it will have virtually established a Moslem fundamentalist caliphate under the very nose of Turkey. The channels of contagion from permanent ISIS occupation of Mosul are too many to treat in a short note, but here are some of the most important ones: · There are already reports that Kurdish peshmerga forces are moving down to Mosul—potential for ethnic strife. · Maliki asked friendly states for help, which may be disguised call to Iran to get militarily involv...