​New twists on the way to reelections

TURKEY - In Brief 17 Aug 2015 by Atilla Yesilada

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As I expected, the 11th hour attempt by PM designate Ahmet Davutoglu to convince MHP leader Bahceli to a coalition failed after a 2.5 hour meeting. Davutoglu indicated he may tender his resignation on Wednesday or Thursday to Erdogan, upon which CHP spokespersons called upon Erdogan to designate chairman Kilicdaroglu as the new PM. According to CHP sources, a coalition with MHP now commands higher odds. I see no possibility whatsoever that Bahceli will turn the green light to CHP, where pro-Kurdish Rights party HDP will become the third leg in a government. Thus, as far as I'm concerned, president Erdogan will abolish the Grand Assembly by Monday or later in the next week. Bahceli also gave AKP a major shock by announcing that his party will not support a motion by AKP to go to early elections, thus forcing Erdogan to make the decision. This causes a major change in my scenarios. In my last note I suggested that on the way to new elections Turkey will be governed by the lame-duck Davutoglu government. It is now more likely that Davutoglu will be reappointed to lead an “election government”, the members of which will be drafted from AKP, CHP, HDP and the independents. The Justice, Interior and Transportation Ministries (which controls Communications) will have to be manned by independents, while the rest of the Cabinet posts will either be doled out by the PM, or assigned by a raffle. I honestly don't know the answer, because Turkey never had an “election government”. If this is the future, it is rather troubling, because the new Cabinet is likely to stay in power through 2015, when post-election coalition talks will take place and will probably not agree on any major e...