New US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil unlikely to thwart Hungary's oil imports from Russia in short term

HUNGARY - In Brief 26 Oct 2025 by Istvan Racz

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There seems to be some lack of certainty about the likely short-term consequences of the new US sanctions on Hungary's oil imports from Russia. We stress short-term, because the long-term prospect is that EU policies keep systematically moving towards eventually, and most probably within two years from now, forcing Hungary to give up its imports of Russian oil entirely.On this subject, Politico.eu wrote two days ago (https://www.politico.eu/articl...): 'While the details are still being firmed up, the sanctions could force Moscow to shut off its remaining oil pipelines to Europe...'. Exactly. Details, possibly including important ones are not exactly known yet, and sanctions could force Russia to shut off pipelines. Or they may not do so. To us, this conclusion appears to be a little bit hasty.To Politico's credit, they reported on PM Orbán's words said in his usual radio program on Friday morning, describing himself as busy working with experts on 'circumventing' the sanctions, clearly suggesting that there is indeed a problem to solve. Mr. Orbán once again used a military-style language, saying 'the battle is not over yet', etc. but it is at least partially his usual technique to impress his audience. In our view, the word 'circumventing' deserves more attention in the Prime Minister's interview. Looking at the US Department of the Treasury's related press release of October 22 (https://home.treasury.gov/news...), that text uses conditional mood rather richly, strongly suggesting that substantial scope is deemed to be left for a discretionary assessment of individual cases. In addition, the fact that the sanctions specifically go against Rosneft and Lukoil, no doubt ...