New York Times says US estimates Russia has suffered 200 K casualties

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS - In Brief 04 Feb 2023 by Alex Teddy
On February 2 the newspaper said the estimate comes from confidential US government sources and is backed by other Western governments. It includes killed, wounded and captured. The estimate comes from satellite images, listening in on communications, social media posts and Russia media. NYT said hundreds of troops are killed each day in the Battle of Bakhmut. In November 2022 the US Defense Secretary estimated Russian casualties at 100,000. That makes the sudden leap to 100,000 less credible. The high casualty estimate is presumably an effort to demoralize Russia. US officials say that Russia is throwing untrained draftees into the battle without regard for casualties. Wagner Group is doing this. The aim is for them to draw Ukrainian fire and reveal Ukrainian positions. These attacks are a diversion before the main attack by professional troops.  It is estimated that Wagner has 50,000 troops who mostly came from prison. Russian prisons had a population of 550,000 in 2021. In September 2022 Russia admitted to 6,000 killed in the war up until that time. But open source media said they could name over 12,000 Russian troops who had been killed as of December 2022. Note that these figures do not include the wounded. There are on average 3 wounded for each one killed.  On February 2 Putin marked the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad by likening the Ukraine War to WW2. He said that Russia is again fighting for its survival against fascism. He said that Russia would fight against tanks with more than tanks. Some took this to be an allusion to WMD.

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