No Surprises: Zelenskiy & Poroshenko Pass to Second Round

UKRAINE - In Brief 31 Mar 2019 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
National exit polls replicated survey results we’ve been observing over the last few months. The only surprise was for Ihor Smeshko, ex-Head of Security Bureau of Ukraine who managed to collect substantial support starting from zero just few months ago. Yulia Tymoshenko most likely will not recognize election results though voting was rather smooth with minor violations reported. We see a huge gap between Zelenskiy and Poroshenko. And surveys report that Zelenskiy will beat Poroshenko in second round. However, Poroshenko will not give up that easily.Firstly, Zelenskiy competitors have spotted that he is a poor public speaker. Apparently Poroshenko team will be pedaling this weakness heavily over the upcoming weeks.Secondly, for many Ukrainians Zelenskiy is unacceptable as a president and when his presidency is so close Poroshenko might play on that and benefit some extra support.Thirdly, there are some conspiracy talks that Ihor Kolomoyskiy might now start bargaining with Poroshenko how to monetize success of Zelenskiy. Allegedly if Poroshenko pleases Kolomoyskiy with compensation, Zelenskiy might start making blunders over the upcoming weeks. Still, it will be a challenging task for Poroshenko to cover the reported gap of more than 12 ppt. Especially if Yulia Tymoshenko and other candidates team up with Zelenskiy.

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