Noise in the Economic Activity Indicators

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 16 Sep 2013 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore
The extreme volatility of the data lately has been hampering the task of gauging the economic activity trend. In previous reports we have already indicated this has been happening with the figures on industrial production, where the monthly variations in recent months have been alternating between -2% and +2% (Graph 1). The same applies to the Central Bank’s economic activity index, the IBC-Br, where the annualized monthly rates have been varying between -12% and +16%. With the signals on the intensity of the variations masked by loud noise, it’s necessary to abandon the information contain...

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