Economics: The non-tariff barriers US cites put Mexico at a disadvantage in the upcoming USMCA review and potential renegotiation

MEXICO - Report 18 Nov 2025 by Mauricio González and Francisco González

The positions on non-tariff barriers being cited by the current US administration loom large over the USMCA review and possible renegotiation, a process the three signature countries are scheduled to jointly engage in beginning next July. The barriers Washington points to were outlined in a US Trade Representative document in March of this year. In response to a USTR request for consultations in that country in the run-up to the USMCA review, relevant actors in US-Mexico trade have expressed their opinions, including the US Chamber of Commerce, the Business Roundtable, and the American Petroleum Institute.

Among the non-tariff barriers, there are aspects that can be addressed by the Mexican government through adjustments that would improve trade and investment conditions in some sectors. However, there are other aspects that mark very sensitive lines of division in the negotiations and mean that Mexico enters the review and possible renegotiation at a clear disadvantage that could translate into results with negative consequences for the country's long-term economic growth. These more problematic factors are also interrelated and amplify their negative effects, the most relevant of which are the elimination of autonomous federal agencies; the reform of the judiciary and laws related to its operation (Amparo Law), as well as changes to laws governing the energy sector. This week’s Economic Outlook analyzes some of the factors that are key to the USMCA review process next year.

In economic news last week, it was announced that in September 2025, industrial production declined -0.4% compared to August and -3.3% yoy. That last number brings the industrial sector’s cumulative performance for the first three quarters of the year to -1.7%. All sectors contracted at an annual rate, while monthly growth in mining, electricity, gas and water, and manufacturing was insufficient to offset the decline in construction (-0.4% month over month and -7.2% yoy). A recovery in industrial output is not anticipated for the remainder of the year.

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