Not so fast

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 20 Jan 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

Monthly activity indicators point to a certain slowdown in the economy in the fourth quarter of 2024. Given the restrictive monetary policy and a possibly reduced fiscal impulse, we expect the cooling of economic activity to persist in 2025, with GDP projected to grow by 2.2%. However, we are monitoring the expectation of a record harvest, whose impacts on the economy are likely to be concentrated in the first half of the year.

Although agriculture has a modest weight in GDP, its expansion affects other sectors, potentially limiting both the slowdown in activity at the start of the year and the reduction in inflationary pressures associated with the output gap.

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