Of deficits and rising risks

PHILIPPINES - Forecast 28 May 2018 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang

Amidst buoyant global growth, the domestic economy expanded strongly at the start of 2018 boosted by particularly vigorous public spending. Despite this, the local mood especially in financial markets is less than jubilant. While we think the economy’s fundamentals quite solid as affirmed by S&P’s outlook revision on the sovereign credit, we are watchful of how dour moods in financial markets may affect people’s animal spirits and consuming and investing behavior and thus, not just the direction of capital flows but also economic growth down the road. We are keeping our 6.8% GDP forecast for 2018 for now.

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