Off to China

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 18 Oct 2016 by Romeo Bernardo

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In an earlier post (“Belling the Cat,” 15 July 2016), we wondered what the Duterte Administration would do next, caught between an unsought for victory against China with respect to the country’s claims in the West Philippine Sea / South China Sea and the President’s desire to pursue bilateral talks and reel in more investments from the neighborhood giant. What happened next caught everyone off-guard. Bristling from the cancellation of a meeting with the US President on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit last month, President Duterte whipped up a diplomatic storm in Philippine-US relations, particularly on security matters, including suspending joint military exercises and threatening to buy arms from China (and Russia). The sudden (and evidently unplanned) pivot unsettled many, including former President Fidel Ramos, the President’s special envoy to China, who said in a critical column that the “mix of ‘off-and-on’ statements” by the President on the U.S. were “discombobulating.” Against this backdrop, the President today starts a three-day state visit to China. Central in policy wonks’ minds is how the territorial dispute would be handled in the President’s quest for among others, more trade and investments, infrastructure finance and fishing rights for local fishermen. Naturally, the diplomats on both sides of the fence would rather downplay this issue and instead, highlight the prospective haul in business deals and the aid that China has started giving (e.g., a massive drug rehabilitation center). After all, the President is accompanied by a 400-person strong business contingent. This trip comes at a time when Filipinos’ net trust in China remains in the cellar (pe...