OFZ: Borrowing Plan 2021 looks realistic, but implies extra risks for Minfin

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 13 Oct 2020 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

The Russian government has set a new annual record for domestic borrowing: it raised more than R3 trln on the open market year to date (the FY19 figure was slightly above R2 trln). Domestic local banks brought the lion’s share of demand, in contrast to the previous year, when international players dominated. The government mainly sold floating rate paper in 3Q20, which adds interest rate risk to its balance sheet. The concept of the budget for 2021-2023 assumes financing of expenditures primarily via borrowing on the market and sets ambitious targets for the issuance. Nevertheless, the planned amount of supply will be lower than in 2020, and the Finance Ministry has a good chance to attract sufficient demand.

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