OFZ issuance: Finance Ministry fulfilled 17.3% of quarterly plan in one auction day

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 07 Oct 2020 by Alexander Kudrin

On Wednesday the Russian Finance Ministry placed a record high amount of OFZ. During two auctions it managed to place a 10-year floater (linked to RUONIA rate) worth to R316 bln and a 5-year fixed-rate paper worth to R30 bln. In such a way the Government covered more than 17% of the quarterly plan, which was set at R2 trln. To remind the previous record for the single auction was set at the beginning of September when the Finance Ministry sold 6-year floater totaling R188 bln.The demand for floaters is coming from the domestic financial sector. These bonds are placed with a certain premium to RUONIA (35-45 bps), which allows banks to fix quite an attractive margin in risk-free instruments. Besides, domestic investors think that chances for any further CBR rate cut are limited. Moreover, the regulator recently articulated the idea that under certain conditions the key rate might be increased in 1.5-2 years from now, which fuels interest in floaters as a defensive asset.Given the moderate lending activity of commercial banks, the demand for floaters is likely to remain in place in the coming months. If so, the Finance Ministry will have chances to raise R1.6-1.8 trln via OFZ placements in Q4’20. Of course, issuance of floaters means that the Government is accepting additional interest rate risk, but the price looks reasonable. GKEM Analytica mentioned in the report published on Sep 14, that Russia’s 2020 budget spending depends on its ability to borrow. The result of recent auctions shows that the government spending plans may be executed almost in full.Evgeny GavrilenkovAlexander Kudrin

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