OFZ: a new approach to placement tactics

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 21 Nov 2022 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

In mid-October, the Russian Ministry of Finance resumed primary OFZ auctions despite challenging market conditions. Moreover, by the beginning of November, it became clear that the government had set a priority to borrow as much as possible. As a result, the Ministry raised R1.3 trln on the market in less than a month and a half, which was more than twice as much as we had forecast. The change in tactics may be explained by desire not to spend money from the NWF as this method of budget financing can be considered as pro-inflationary. We believe that the issuance activity will gradually decrease, and Minfin will focus on the cost of borrowing again.

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