OFZ: Russian debt puzzle still not assembled

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 29 Apr 2024 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

The yields in the Russian debt market continue to grow. Last week’s tightening of the CBR's signalling regarding the further trajectory of the key rate may even stimulate this trend. On one hand, even the existing yields look very attractive to long-term institutional investors. On the other hand, the government's ambitious borrowing plans and the uncertainty about the future of the key rate are forcing investors to remain on the sidelines. Nevertheless, the performance of the Russian economy remains better than expected, which is likely to generate additional budget revenue. This will give the Ministry of Finance more flexibility and, possibly, an opportunity to reduce the amount of borrowing in 2024.

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