OFZ: Temporary improvement

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 27 Nov 2023 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

Recent weeks have been very successful for the OFZ market. Despite the CBR's key-rate hike to 15% at the end of October, the yield growth in government bonds turned out to be limited. At the same time, demand increased in the primary market, which allowed Minfin to boost borrowing. Apparently, investors believe that the CBR will begin its rate-cutting cycle in 2024 and hence see some good potential in OFZs. However, inflationary pressure from budget expenditures and the upcoming increase in borrowing in 2024 may postpone the positive scenario.

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