Oil Prices, Full Employment and 2015 Politics

COLOMBIA - Report 22 Dec 2014 by Veronica Navas and Mauricio Santa Maria
Executive SummaryThough oil prices are down 20% from their 2014 peaks, the impact on economic results this year will be limited. Recall that the Colombian price basket is around 10% lower than Brent. 2015 growth forecasts are being cut, to account for a weaker mining sector, and for lower household and firms’ purchasing power, due to substantial peso depreciation. The Central Bank cut its 2015 GDP growth forecast to 4.4%, and government cut to 4.3%, from 4.8%. Some investors also expect rate cuts. Our growth forecast is 4%.So, in spite of the recently approved tax reform, next year will als...

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