Oman and Qatar budget conservatively; Sharjah remains a concern despite a spending cut

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 29 Dec 2022 by Justin Alexander

* Conservative oil assumptions were used by Oman ($55) and Qatar ($65).
* These result in a budgeted -3% of GDP deficit for Oman and a 3.5% surplus for Qatar.
* Oman’s spending (ex-fuel subsidies) is budgeted to rise by about 5% vs its 2022 outturn.
* Qatar’s spending is budgeted to fall by -3% as capex is slashed post-WC but salaries increase.
* Sharjah budgets a decline in expenditure due to a huge (and possibly unrealistic) cut in capex.
* But spending growth in other areas and an implied decline in revenue is concerning given its large structural deficit. There is also no sign yet of its MTFP.
* Budgets for Bahrain and Kuwait should come in Q1. Abu Dhabi generally only discloses its budget in bond prospectuses.

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