OMAN: Hopeful signs in Sultan Haitham’s first speech
On February 23, following the end of the 40-day mourning period, Sultan Haitham made his first policy speech to the nation. It was broadcast live on TV, and there were some positive reactions from locals in Oman. As would be expected, the speech lacks many specifics, and it certainly doesn’t lay out detailed policies or targets, but it does give a general sense of the framework of the Sultan’s thinking and priorities. In this, it broadly fits with our prior expectations that he will maintain Oman’s neutral foreign policy stance and take a more assertive approach to fiscal consolidation.
On foreign policy he said, “Oman’s message of peace would continue to roam the world, carrying a great heritage and noble goals, building and not demolishing, approaching and not distancing. We are committed to sustain this approach." In practical terms, this means that Oman will maintain its relations with actors such as Qatar, Iran, Israel and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, resisting pressure from the UAE and Saudi Arabia to take their lead on regional policy. The financial implication of this is that it could reduce the likelihood of financial support from these countries, in terms of both grants and investments. We noted before that of the $10bn in infrastructure grants pledged to Oman back in 2011, only Kuwait has actually disbursed its $2.5bn share, while Saudi Arabia has only recently provided a little and the UAE has done nothing (nor, apparently, has Qatar, which is surprising). However, regionally, Oman’s neutrality could be helpful in mediating the war in Yemen and in mitigating US-Iran tensions.
On public finances and the economy, he had some quite strong language…
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