OMAN: Reflections ahead of a potential issuance

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 28 Sep 2020 by Rory Fyfe and Justin Alexander

* Oman may issue at least $3bn in bonds imminently.
* This is coming sooner than expected, and ahead of reforms or external support, because of concerns about a renewed downturn in the yield environment.
* The VAT law should be issued soon, but implementation could be delayed until 2022.
* The H1 outturn shows some signs of progress on spending cuts but the underlying deficit (ex-transfers) could be around -12% of GDP. The full year deficit could be as high as $12bn.
* There have been positive reforms in government, state-owned firms and sovereign wealth funds.
* However, financing needs over the next few years are substantial, and could total around $40bn in 2020-22
* Regional support is still possible and would improve the credit story.

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