​On Syria and domestic tensions: Political risk is rising

TURKEY - In Brief 17 Dec 2018 by Atilla Yesilada

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Since my last comments on Turkey’s stated intention to invade North East Syria, it made irrevocable commitments to carry out its promise. Negotiations with White House are presumably underway, which will delay the execution the military campaign, but room for compromise is very narrow. At the end, I have to wager for a military incursion into Syrian Kurdish lands, which will pit US once again against Turkey. At home, there is an unusual paucity of polls, perhaps because neither the government (AKP-MHP), nor the opposition (CHP-IYIP) alliance have finalized the haggling on cities and candidates. But there is another very disturbing development. AKP claims that-- inspired by the Yellow Vest demonstrations in France-- the opposition is planning to move the election campaign “to the streets”. The opposition counters with the charge that AKP is fomenting civil unrest to reinforce its law-and-order loving conservative-nationalist base. Cutting to the chase, while I had anticipated gradually rising political risks in the run up to elections, the ascent has started too early. Given our forecast of a deepening slump, and AKP slipping further in the polls, erratic behavior and daredevil foreign policy gambits are no longer tail-risk scenarios. Too late to turn back on Syrian campaign Since my last Market Brief, Erdogan and the pro-AKP media have carried out an all-out campaign to intimidate Syrian Kurds and US, as well as heralding to all who care to hear that “the terror corridor” meaning the strip of Syrian towns abutting Turkish border and the town of Manbij to the West of Euphrates will be purged of the PYD-YPG menace.Special forces and armor have been deployed to the border...