On the political agenda and today’s MTP

TURKEY - Report 06 Sep 2026 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Our autumn coverage in politics start with the review of the agenda, which promises to be turbulent and chock full of surprises. Messrs. Ozel and Yavas will be eliminated from the presidential race before 2027, the politics author thinks, while progress in the (Kurdish) Peace Process may trigger new constitutional talks. Early elections are definitely not on the agenda, in his view.
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The Medium-Term (Economic) Program and the attendant macro framework covering the next three years was announced today. We share a few thoughts on the latter. The gap between 2026 forecasts and turnouts is generally huge, and the authorities have a tendency to attribute this to shocks, which we find problematic and not so credible. As for 2027, the revision of the inflation forecast to 21% from 9% was probably the most noticeable, yet not a very surprising one.

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