On The Verge of Recession

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Aug 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

In June, the IBC-Br, which is a proxy for monthly GDP calculated by the Central Bank, fell 1.5%. With this, the decline in the second quarter was 1.2%, and this is a good estimate of what the GDP figures will show for the quarter (Graph 1). Worse than the magnitude of the drop are its characteristics: a) it is generalized; and b) there are no indications of a significant recovery in the coming months. Based on this picture, the probability is higher that the economy is very near a recession, or even already in one.

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