On Turkey’s (political) fat tails

TURKEY - Report 09 Feb 2025 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

Having poured his heart out first in the recent quarterly/forecast report, the politics author is no mood to revisit the same old territory. Regarding “routine business,” he merely recaps the week’s developments pertinent to the main narrative, the most important of which is a “historic” statement by Abdullah Ocalan this month heavily advertised by pro-Kurdish DEM Party.

In the remaining three essays, he covers “fat tail” risks involving Turkey, leading in with MHP leader Bahceli’s heart surgery. He was discharged from the hospital on Sunday, leaving behind serious questions about his long-term health. His retirement from politics could spell the end of the Peace Process with Kurds and the AKP-MHP alliance.

Greece is extremely worried about a major quake on or around Santorini Island (140 miles away from Turkey’s shoreline), which would spew volcanic plume, ash and trigger a tsunami to hit Turkey’s Aegean Coast, with considerable impact on the upcoming tourism season.

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