Operation Big Fish: The morning after

TURKEY - In Brief 18 Dec 2013 by Atilla Yesilada

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I’m still not ready to write a full-blown market brief on the “Big Fish” corruption probe launched yesterday, because there is so little official information. For instance, we don't even know whether the detainees (85 in total) are material witnesses are actually accused of crimes. We also need to see whether the courts will keep them in custody, which would mean that the war is permanent. If at least the sons of three ministers are released either to be tried on bail, or because they were only accessories, I may fool myself into thinking that this was only a warning shot by the Gulen Church to AKP to recant. Here is brief summary of what the press tells me and my preliminary conclusions: Actually, the DA launched three separate probes into money laundering from Iran, bribery and abuse of zoning laws. I think three cases will be linked to each other to present the detainees as a criminal gang, which would authorize the Gulen-affiliated courts to try the cases. The DA’s office tightly controls and leaks all the available info. The sum alleged to have changed hands in three operations is Euro 100 billion. Pro-Gulen newspapers are busy spreading the rumor that the DA will arraign at least four ministers. (Ask to have their immunity lifted so they can be questioned and prosecuted.) While the Gulen Church denies they have any involvement in this affair, the pro-AKP media openly blames them and suggests that in cooperation with USA and Israel, Gulen is trying to retire Erdogan. This is the main reason I think why the war will not end quickly: Both sides have reached the recognition that if they don’t shoot first they will be eyeing the world from six feet under. The allegati...