Politics: Opposition coalition commits to presidential pre-nomination process, Xóchitl candidacy the big surprise

MEXICO - Report 05 Jul 2023 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

Following months of wrangling between the three opposition coalition parties and civil society organizations and activists, both sides settled on the basic approach for choosing the person who will eventually be their 2024 presidential candidate. The rules, which offer a hybrid approach combining a primary election and an opinion poll, with each accorded the same weight in deciding the future candidate, failed to please many on the civil society side, and many details have yet to be worked out. However, there is little doubt that the June 26 announcement re-positioned the opposition coalition in the political debate and in public opinion, spaces that until now had been monopolized by Morena and its aspirants. It allowed the opposition to seize control of the agenda from AMLO and his pre-candidates. The rules also helped whittle a rather unwieldy field as numerous candidates pulled out of the race over the past week including one of the early frontrunners, Lilly Téllez. More are likely to fall by the wayside in the next five weeks as they will be required to collect the signatures of 150,000 registered voters or be eliminated from the contest.

But far more importantly, the confirmation of the candidate selection approach seems to have been the nudge Senator Xóchitl Gálvez needed to jump into a race in which she had already ranked a strong third behind the two strongest polling party-backed aspirants, Santiago Creel (PAN) and Enrique de la Madrid (PRI). Her compelling history as an indigenous woman of humble origins who managed to become a successful businesswoman and public servant add to her appeal among opposition voters and should also make her a stronger contender in the general election, especially if the Morena-led coalition nominates Claudia Sheinbaum, as is generally expected.

The Morena nomination is not yet a settled matter, however. The latest GEA ISA poll once again shows Sheinbaum and Marcelo Ebrard in a technical dead heat, with each polling around 38% in the latest survey, and all other aspirants in single digits.

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