Politics: Opposition in need of new strategies as support slips despite widespread discontent with the incumbents
As we continue our analysis of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly poll of registered voters, we see that while support for Claudia Sheinbaum remained largely unchanged at slightly above 50%, she grew her lead over Xóchitl Gálvez, for whom support fell by 4pp. The gap separating them widened from 19 to 22 points, a shift that at least in large part could be attributed to a rise in voting intentions for then-MC presidential hopeful Samuel García, which climbed from 7 to 10%. But electoral preferences for Morena also fell, with the percentage of voters planning to vote for the incumbent party tumbling from 49% last March to only 42%. Nevertheless, Sheinbaum is drawing 9pp from independents, almost double the percentage points Xóchitl is picking up from that non partisan segment.
In the coming weeks we will see to what extent the opposition alliance manages to retool and fine tune its campaign strategy and organization, and to what extent it could begin to make significant inroads among voters. Another factor is whom the MC decides to run for president, and whether this will begin to influence the contest. But given how far Gálvez currently trails Sheinbaum, even if the MC retains the 10% peak support reached by erstwhile nominee Samuel García, it is likely to have little or no effect on the outcome of the race unless the opposition camp begins to significantly close the gap.
This week we further parse the polling numbers and analyze points that could reshape the contest.
Now read on...
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