Politics: Opposition precandidate Xóchitl gains impetus; odds improve to eventually bring the MC on board

MEXICO - Report 17 Jul 2023 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

Less than three weeks since Senator Xóchitl Gálvez surprisingly announced she would enter the presidential contest she has quickly gained momentum, as both endorsements and the latest polls show. In that short time, she has easily leapfrogged over all other aspirants to become the opposition’s standard bearer and begun to close in on the two leading contenders for the Morena presidential nomination. In a recent Massive Caller automated phone poll, she had drawn within five points of former chancellor Marcelo Ebrard.

The longstanding perception that a Morena-led coalition had a lock on the 2024 election is now in the rear view mirror, and few still harbor fears that the PAN-PRI-PRD coalition and its independent and civil society allies might implode even before election day. The incumbent camp is still in front, but its lead has narrowed and only one party is still on the sidelines: the Citizens’ Movement (MC) is polling around 5% and has averaged slightly better going it alone in recent elections. That’s the sort of margin that could decide which of the two major camps wins in June 2024.

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