Optimism About Exports

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 12 Apr 2021 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Paula Magalhães

This year, Brazilian exports should attain their best result since 1997, which marks the start of the historical series. There are three reasons for optimism: (i) the better perspectives for global growth, as reported in the “World Economic Outlook” published this month; (ii) the rising prices of commodities, triggered by the improved growth of China and the weakening of the dollar; and (iii) the maintenance of a significantly weaker real exchange rate than estimated based on our model of the equilibrium real exchange rate. In this Report, we restrict ourselves to evaluation of Brazilian exports, whose series was submitted to a revision (as explained by SITEC Technical Note 01/2021, from the Economy Ministry), with the removal of the fictitious effects caused by the Repetro program. We’ll analyze the revised import numbers in a future Report. The results of our new estimates corroborate the numbers presented in our last Quarterly Outlook, with exports reaching US$ 260 billion in 2021. Before presenting these results, however, we present a summary of the revisions described in the technical note from the Economy Ministry.

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