Ouch!

TURKEY - Report 03 Feb 2023 by Murat Ucer

Consumer prices rose by 6.65%, m/m, in January, significantly higher than the consensus forecast of around 3.8%, and even more so than ours. Our forecast error, which, admittedly, is the largest as far back as we remember it, stems mainly from a substantial underestimation of food inflation (partly related to our overestimation of the effect of the supermarket price-freezes) and even more so, of service inflation (more on the latter below).

The very high monthly print notwithstanding, 12-month CPI inflation nevertheless declined to 57.7% from 64.3% in December or its peak of 85.5% in October, thanks to last year’s elevated base.

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