Our (in)famous last words

TURKEY - In Brief 29 Mar 2024 by Atilla Yesilada

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Executive Summary With an abject lack of enthusiasm and deep trepidation, the politics author attends to his duty of sharing his final predictions for municipal elections and beyond. If polls are to be believed, which is a big IF, CHP has sealed the deal in Ankara and Izmir, with the latest three polls heralding CHP/Imamoglu beginning to put distance between himself and AKP/Kurum. In the rest of major cities, CHP is almost certain to suffer some losses, because it controls a majority of them, which may be partially compensated by AKP being beaten in some conservative battleground cities by CHP, New Welfare Party (NWP) and IYIP. Needless to say, pro-Kurdish rights party DEM will capture Eastern and Southeastern cities with large Kurdish populations. Polls have been proven wrong in May, and the likelihood of being misled by them is still the biggest downside risk to the forecasts. On the other hand, Erdogan has run out of ace cards to turn the tide in favor of his party. He made the mistake of elevating Istanbul to the sole measure of victory, hence, the politics author would not be surprised if pro-AKP and MHP thugs try to trigger chaos on Sunday night. Looking past the elections, Erdogan’s recent endorsement of Mehmet Simsek and the Economic Stabilization Program (ESP) significantly reduces the risk of a sudden return to heterodox policies and key personnel changes, in this author’s mind, but the beauty of living in Erdogan’s farm is not being able to rule anything out on any given day. The Speaker of the Grand Assembly officially stated that consultations on a new constitution will start after the Id, and there is pervasive talk of Erdogan daring the opposition to ear...