Overview of some key issues in the GCC (conference call summary)
This provides a brief overview of how we view the GCC region and some of the key issues in each country, extracted from our conference call, although this is not intended to be anywhere near comprehensive. Oman’s leadership vacuum is hindering reform efforts, especially fiscal ones, but gas output is up, and there is good diversification potential. Bahrain has almost become a province of Saudi Arabia and is likely to receive ongoing support from Saudi as it struggles with fiscal reforms. The Khaleej al-Bahrain shale oil fields could be a game-changer, if they prove commercially viable. Kuwait is wealthy but facing delays to investment and economic reforms due to a fractured parliament and as the royal family jostles for position to succeed the aged Emir and Crown Prince. UAE is divided into different Emirates, with Abu Dhabi making progress on further developing its oil and gas sector while Dubai is struggling with real-estate oversupply ahead of Expo 2020, which should boost tourism significantly. Qatar’s plan to boost LNG output by over 40% by 2025 is far more important economically than the 2022 World Cup or the ongoing regional embargo. Saudi politics are in transition, and the economy has been through several tough years but has been perked up by a fiscal stimulus since 2017, at the expense of a higher deficit.
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