Pandemic/political update: looking for a change, but not now

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 04 Mar 2021 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Alexander Kudrin

Even though vaccination in Russia is going slowly, reported daily infection cases have fallen to around 11K, almost half the figure reported a month ago. Around 5.4 mln people were vaccinated at least with one shot in early March, which is very little relative to the country’s population. Nonetheless, restrictions are being gradually eased in various regions, even though there are no guarantees that another phase of the pandemic will not recur. The reluctance of the Russian people to be vaccinated increases the chances that the country may get hit again by new virus strains.

At the moment it seems that the pandemic is becoming less of an issue for the majority of Russians. who are seeking ways to co-exist with the virus by relying more on themselves than looking for support elsewhere (be it the government or the achievements of medical science, such as the vaccine). Overall, despite some mistrust in the domestic medical school of thought and the vaccine, Russians are generally supportive of the recent easing of restrictions and are becoming less interested in politics.

Vladimir Putin remains the most trusted politician, whose trust level remains almost the same as it was a year ago. Mr. Mishustin, who was appointed PM a year ago, quickly gained support of the Russian population and remains the second most trusted politician in the country. Many Russians generally appreciate the country’s foreign policy and do not blame the country's leadership for the Western sanctions. Putting the facts together, one may conclude that the western sanctions are helping the country elite remain popular with a large number of Russians. Western sanctions are largely perceived not as sanctions against particular individuals, companies, or sectors of the economy, but against the country in general, including the workforce and ordinary Russians employed by those companies. As the generational change naturally drives the country toward political change, the Western sanctions are pulling it back toward the preservation of the political status quo.

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