Paradoxes and Perspectives

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 31 Mar 2014 by Marcelo Gazzano, Cristina Pinotti and Affonso Pastore

There are two paradoxes in the Brazilian economy’s recent behavior. First, although in recent weeks the perspectives have worsened for inflation, the current account deficit and GDP growth, the Ibovespa and real have both been appreciating (the exchange rate now is below R$2.30/US$). Second, the real had been appreciating even before stock prices started to increase, despite the negative perspectives for the current account deficit. What’s behind these two movements? We initially examine the first paradox. In our Quarterly Outlook published on March 17th, we projected GDP growth of 1.5%; in...

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