Past Performance is No Guarantee of...

TURKEY - Report 05 Dec 2016 by Murat Ucer

Twelve-month CPI inflation eased in November to 7% from 7.2% in October, contrary to expectations of a slight increase, as monthly rate came in at 0.5% vs. expectations of a 0.8% increase. Producer prices jumped visibly to 6.4%, y/y, from 2.8% a month earlier, likely driven by higher energy prices and a weaker currency (Table 1; Graph 1). The decline in CPI is all about the food category, which eased further to 3.6% from 5.2%, shaving off 0.4 pps from the headline rate (Graphs 2-3). Core inflation was stable, at 7%, y/y, but edged up slightly, m/m (Graphs 4-5), while both non-food and service inflation edged up also, with non-food rising to 8.4% from 8% and services to just over 8% from 7.8% (both our estimates), with almost all categories showing considerable stickiness (Graph 6).

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