Peace talks?
There’s been lots of talk about a potential peace deal. Ukrainian sentiments on the issue are murky. While polls show a growing demand for a peace deal, the majority of respondents still reject any territorial concessions to Russia. Moreover, an overwhelming majority—77.3%—would agree to peace with Russia only if the Russian Army withdrew from occupied territories, and 51.5% of those believe that Russia should withdraw from occupied Crimea as well.
Russia is doing its utmost to break Ukraine's will to resist, through the destruction of infrastructure and horrific attacks, such as the missile strike on Okhmatdyt Children’s Hospital. But these tactics are nothing new for Ukraine, especially after the massacres in Bucha and Irpin in 2022. What might be driving the growing peace sentiments is the strengthened mobilization rules that took effect in May, and have been discussed since December 2023. The intensified recruitment process has created substantial pressure on society, but it appears that Ukrainians have accepted the new rules of the game, as no internal disruption has occurred, despite Moscow's efforts to exploit mobilization sentiments.
Recruitment has accelerated significantly. By September, Ukrainian brigades are expected to be fully replenished with fresh manpower. Meanwhile, developments at the frontline remain almost unchanged, with the Russians grinding forward at a snail's pace near Avdiivka, relying on guided aerial bombs and "meat assaults." These developments closely resemble the dynamics of World War I, with back-and-forth pushes, depending on which side deploys more manpower to the trenches. Ukraine has so far smoothly navigated this new stage of mobilization. Next, it will be Russian society's turn to demonstrate its willingness to sacrifice more lives over its imperialistic ambitions.
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