Permission for limited long-range missile strikes vs. global security breakdown

UKRAINE - In Brief 18 Nov 2024 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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On Sunday morning, November 17, we received an alert that nearly 17 Russian strategic bombers were in the air preparing to launch dozens of cruise missiles. Such a big number of strategic bombers approaching launch sites usually means that hypersonic ballistic missile Kynzhal carriers Mig-31 will join them soon in the air, and a massive missile and drone attack will begin. On that Sunday morning, the Russians launched 120 missiles and 90 Shahed drones, targeting Ukraine's energy system. This attack appeared to be a response to president-elect Donald Trump’s request to avoid escalation and the recent appeasement efforts of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had called Vladimir Putin to discuss ways to achieve peace. The news of the U.S. authorizing long-range missile strikes on Russia (after three years of war) adds another intriguing element to the broader picture of the potential peace deal Trump plans to secure soon. Firstly, I want to comment on the decision to allow long-range missile strikes on Russia. While this represents a significant step forward for the Biden administration, at this stage of the war, it is unlikely to have a major impact. The authorization is limited to the Kursk oblast, and the U.S. is expected to provide only a very limited number of missiles. For Russia, this will likely translate into additional logistical costs, but as we’ve seen throughout this war, the Kremlin does not seem to count costs as long as it has the resources to continue aggression. In other words, for Biden, this move might serve to ease his conscience, signaling that he has done everything he could, but it is unlikely to dramatically alter the course of the war. Secondly, ...