Peru macroeconomic forecasts

PERU - Forecast 16 Jun 2020 by Alfredo Thorne

We have kept our 2020 growth forecasts unchanged at-17% oya and raised our 2021 on the back of a slightly stronger rebound. We have also made some adjustments to our monthly GDP estimates. We still see 2020 Q2 growth at -27% oya and -70% q/q, saar, despite the deeper fall in April (by -40.5% from -31.8% oya) and revised upwards our May and June forecasts. This is consistent with our view that the economy bottomed out in April and, since then, has begun slowly to recover. That said, the magnitude of the rebound for the rest of the year depends on private expectations (as indicated by the PMI survey). This is justified by the possibility of a further extension of the lockdown period and growing political risk emerging from Congress. We do see some sectors recovering more quickly than others, such as mining.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This forecast is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This forecast is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this forecast or its contents.