Pithy data commentary-October 17, 2023

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - Report 17 Oct 2023 by Ivan Tchakarov

We comment on the key data and news events in the CCA:

Armenia: Fitch argues rating resilient to Nagorno Karabakh conflict
Armenia: Yield curve does signal (modestly) higher longer-term risk
Armenia: Civil Contract party finds a path to victory, nominates mayor of Yerevan
Armenia: Central Bank intervenes to prop up the dram
Armenia: Sep inflation still around zero, but set to accelerate in coming months
Armenia: 2024 budget foresees 3.2 percent of GDP deficit
Armenia: Key macroeconomic risk materializes
Azerbaijan: Inflation declined to 5.1 percent YoY in Sep
Azerbaijan: Central Bank continues to build up FX reserves
Azerbaijan: Remittances keep on declining in Aug
Georgia: Inflation prints at 0.7 percent YoY in Sep
Georgia: Lari drop stops on continuing FX intervention
Georgia: IMF expresses concern about NBG’s sanctions decision
Georgia: Constitutional Court gives the go-ahead for Parliament to consider impeaching the President
Georgia: Remittances stabilize at high levels in Sep
Georgia: Trade deficit stabilizes but remains large
Georgia: Georgia an active bystander in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
Uzbekistan: Government to raise electricity prices for households from Nov 1
Uzbekistan: CPI increases to 9.2 percent YoY in Sep
Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan starts importing Russian gas
Uzbekistan: FX reserves continue to decline
Tajikistan: Moody’s keeps rating at B3, changes outlook to positive
Tajikistan: Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan continue work on delimiting the border

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